Over 450 multifamily investors attended the Old Capital Speaker Series presentation on March 28th at the Grapevine Convention Center. Mark Dotzour, one of the top economist on the Texas economy, delivered a presentation titled “Clear Sailing Ahead”.
Below are a couple takeaways from the event:
1) Current expansion is 105 months (June 2009-March 2018), which is the 3rd longest ever. Longest was 120 months (March 1991-March 2001) and 2nd longest was 106 months (Feb 1961-Dec 1969).
2) States with the most employment growth in 21st Century: Texas (+2.7MM jobs), California (+2.0MM), and Florida (+1.8MM). States with least: Michigan (-377K), Ohio (-125K), Illinois (-56K).
3) Reasons why expansion will continue:
a. Consumers’ confidence is high and they are spending money again
b. Household net worth is all time high at close to $1Trilion
c. Small businesses and large corporate employers are looking to expand and plan on hiring
d. Over 5.8MM job openings in US with unemployment at 4%.
4) Threats to US expansion:
a. Short term interest rates (federal funds rate currently 1.50%) increase too fast and end up higher than 10 year treasury (currently 2.80%).
b. Long term interest rates increase due to higher inflation due to higher oil prices, US budget deficit spending for infrastructure, cost increases due to labor shortage
If you would like the slides from the event, please e-mail James Eng at Jeng@oldcapitallending.com
Registration for our next event below:
Old Capital Multifamily Conference at AT&T Stadium on September 13th: